How it works

RAID's agents bring you an answer in seconds

RAID turns the news, your own views or a regulator's scenario into a market move, and prices your whole book against it.

01Our approach

One headline, four steps

Reads the news

Turns a news story, a view you type in plain words or a regulator's stress test into a scenario for your book.

The RAID news read: the day's costliest stories, each priced against the book at its own severity.

Builds the market move

Finds the days in 25 years of history most like today, and moves rates, stocks, currencies and commodities together the way they moved then.

RAID's Forward: a view typed in plain words, oil up 30% over a month as Hormuz closes, read into a 2.98σ move in Brent and ready to build.

Prices every position

Reprices every position against the limits you answer to, from a client's stress limit after collateral to a fund's VaR or a bank's capital ratios.

The RAID console listing 31 counterparties with their stress limits, largest concentrations and what each is most vulnerable to.

Finds the break point

Solves for the smallest market move that breaks your limits, which is also the most plausible way they break, and shows who breaks first.

RAID's Reverse on the tariff story: the book breaks at 3.38σ, the US dollar up 5.89% against the Canadian dollar over a month, with seven clients defaulting at the break.

The screens show a demonstration bank built from public data, never a client's positions.

02Our methodology

How RAID builds a scenario, and why it holds up

RAID's engine rests on two methods developed by Attilio Meucci, our technical advisor: Fully Flexible Probabilities, for building scenarios, and Factors on Demand, for measuring exposures.

Attilio MeucciTechnical advisorFounder of ARPM. Former head of research at Bloomberg and chief risk officer at KKR.

Real history, reweighted

Most stress tests rest on correlations someone assumed. RAID starts from 25 years of real market days and reweights them to match the event, so the days most like it count for more and every market moves together the way it actually did.

Severity you control

RAID recommends how hard a shock should hit from historical precedent, in standard deviations, and shows the evidence beside it. Your team sets the final number, and RAID records the choice.

Exposures from your own book

Factors on Demand measures what each counterparty, fund or position is exposed to from its own history of returns. Where your systems already hold sensitivities, RAID uses yours.

Honest about the evidence

Every scenario shows how much history supports it and which past periods it rests on. When too little of history resembles the moment, RAID flags it instead of inventing a precedent.

Your views, kept separate

When you push a view further than history supports, RAID prices it and shows which part rests on history and which part is your judgment.

Where RAID looked

For each shock, the weight RAID gave every earlier period when building its market move, using only the days before it. When the April 2025 tariff shock hit, RAID drew mostly on 2022 and 2020.

Developed in partnership with SMBC.

03Proof

Tested on the four largest crises since 2008

Pick a crisis. RAID worked out each fund's exposures from data up to the day before it began, then priced the fund against the market moves that followed.

2008 financial crisis2011 US downgrade2018 Q4 selloff2020 COVID crash

RAID's priceWhat the fund did

Vanguard Wellington−18.1%−20.3%

Vanguard Balanced Index−16.7%−19.8%

Dodge & Cox Balanced−23.6%−29.2%

Dodge & Cox Income−3.0%−6.3%

Fidelity Puritan−19.1%−23.8%

Oakmark Equity and Income−15.0%−17.1%

Adams Diversified Equity−32.3%−29.9%

Vanguard STAR−19.4%−22.3%

T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation−18.0%−28.9%

Vanguard Total Bond Market+3.0%−0.1%

Dodge & Cox International−39.3%−40.4%

The Merger Fund−14.0%−4.0%

Vanguard Wellington−10.3%−11.0%

Vanguard Balanced Index−10.3%−10.6%

Dodge & Cox Balanced−15.4%−16.2%

Dodge & Cox Income+0.5%−0.1%

Fidelity Puritan−12.2%−12.7%

Oakmark Equity and Income−12.1%−15.4%

Adams Diversified Equity−17.0%−20.5%

Vanguard STAR−12.9%−12.0%

T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation−13.5%−14.1%

Vanguard Total Bond Market+2.8%+3.8%

Dodge & Cox International−20.0%−23.7%

The Merger Fund−4.2%−4.1%

Vanguard Wellington−11.9%−10.2%

Vanguard Balanced Index−12.5%−11.7%

Dodge & Cox Balanced−14.6%−11.8%

Dodge & Cox Income−0.3%+0.1%

Fidelity Puritan−13.1%−15.2%

Oakmark Equity and Income−13.0%−12.2%

Adams Diversified Equity−18.5%−18.3%

Vanguard STAR−12.7%−12.1%

T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation−13.2%−10.3%

Vanguard Total Bond Market+0.9%+1.1%

Dodge & Cox International−17.5%−15.3%

The Merger Fund−3.0%+1.2%

Vanguard Wellington−25.9%−25.1%

Vanguard Balanced Index−22.3%−22.6%

Dodge & Cox Balanced−34.3%−30.9%

Dodge & Cox Income−6.1%−6.9%

Fidelity Puritan−24.7%−23.5%

Oakmark Equity and Income−25.9%−29.4%

Adams Diversified Equity−36.9%−36.9%

Vanguard STAR−24.4%−24.1%

T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation−27.2%−26.8%

Vanguard Total Bond Market+0.2%−1.1%

Dodge & Cox International−49.5%−38.3%

The Merger Fund−9.7%−6.9%

Twelve long-established US funds, chosen before any result was computed. Each fund's return over the crisis window.

04Security and deployment

Secure by design, on-premises or in your cloud

Built to clear bank security review, and live in weeks alongside the systems you already run.

On-premises or your cloud

Run RAID on your own servers or in your private cloud.

Zero data egress

Positions, limits and results never leave your environment.

Your own AI provider

RAID works through the AI models your firm has already approved.

Role-based access

Each person sees only the books and views their role allows.

A full audit trail

Every scenario, input, run and sign-off is recorded, so any number can be rerun and explained.

People decide

RAID advises and never trades. Every decision stays with your team.

Nothing is migrated or switched off: RAID reads from your systems and can hand prices back to your own engine. Full model documentation is available under NDA.

Ask it about your book

If you run a book, or back the people who do, tell us who you are and a founder will reply within two working days.

Available today, priced by the risk you carry.

Investors: hello@aspenftm.com; materials available upon request

Request sent

A founder will reply within two working days.